It's cookie-guessing time!

ByKristen
215 Comments

Yesterday, we had our annual Christmas cookie decorating day.

cut-out sugar cookie dough.

I made a double batch of this cookie dough, and I also made a terrible mess.

messy mixer.

Note to the wise: a double recipe does not actually fit into a Kitchen-Aid Artisan mixer.

cut-out cookies.

We did our usual non-traditional decorating style, which by now is a tradition for us. 😉

Christmas cookies.

Anyway! About the guessing game: every year since probably 2012 or so, we've played a guess-the-cookie-artists game here on my blog after we decorate Christmas cookies.

decorated cookies

I almost decided to skip it this year but before Sonia left last night, she said she thought we should still play. So here we are, thanks to Sonia.

And this was probably a very good idea on her part because probably by next year, Lisey will have moved out, and that will only leave Sonia, Zoe, and me as cookie decorators. So this is maybe the last year we have enough people to do a guessing game. 😉

As it stands, four cookie artists make this too easy...there would only be 24 combinations to guess!

So, two of us have two cookies in this year's roundup, which means there are 288 combos possible (4x4x3x3x2x1 if my probability math is correct).

Here are this year's cookies! First, we have a centipede.

centipede cookie.

Next, a bell with a cat on it (of course!)

cat bell cookie.

Third, a snowman cookie made into a minion:

minion cookie.

Next, a polar bear.

polar bear cookie.

This broken gingerbread man was inspired by the Shrek movie.

broken gingerbread man.

And finally we have a Christmas tree.

green christmas tree.

Here are the cookies with numbers next to them:

numbered cookies.

How to guess

We have four cookie artists:

Kristen
Lisey
Sonia
Zoe

Leave your guesses in the comments like so:

1. Sonia
2. Zoe

and so on, up through six. You will use two of our names twice!

The first person to guess all six right will win a $100 Amazon gift card from me (emailed to you). And if no one gets all six right by tomorrow morning, I will just pick the first person to get closest to the right answers.

Good luck!

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215 Comments

  1. I have no clue, but here goes nothing......
    1. Sonia
    2. Lisey
    3. Sonia
    4. Kristen
    5. Zoe
    6. Kristin
    I am always soooooo far off on these:)

    Reply

  4. Here's my annual total and complete failure to guess correctly:

    1. Kristen
    2. Kristen
    3. Zoey
    4. Sonia
    5. Lisey
    6. Sonia

    Reply

  5. I have no real idea but "kind of" thought about all of your personalities as suggested by blog entries over the past year. I also thought, why not try?!?

    1 Lisey
    2 Lisey
    3 Zoe
    4 Zoe
    5 Kristen
    6 Sonia

    Reply

    1. @Kim S., I do that most years and am completely wrong every time. I've been reading here since almost the beginning. lol

      Reply

  6. What a surprise this year! You know, just because Lisey moves out, doesn't mean she can't visit. Or maybe there will be new people. Or maybe you'll just be sick of the contest. Or you could up your game to gingerbread houses. 🙂 Thank you for this tradition.

    1. Kristen
    2. Kristen
    3. Zoe
    4. Sonia
    5. Lisey
    6. Zoe

    Reply

    1. @Jody S., I agree! I usually just lurk and don't try to guess, but I get a kick out of seeing what designs they come up with. Kristen inspired me to purchase eyeball decorations, which I have to say, have been a tremendously huge hit at my house.

      Reply

  9. At random!
    1. Lisey
    2. Kristen
    3. Zoe
    4. Sonia
    5. Sonia
    6. Kristen
    I just love the creative cookies! Especially the googly eyes.

    Reply

  12. Other than guessing that#2 (the cat) is Kristen's, and that #1 and #4 are by the same person, I'm completely at a loss. Good luck to everyone else!

    Reply

  21. I have no idea at all, but I do remember you doing this with your kids. I'm guessing your son has moved away,as I remember he was the oldest. It was fun to read who did what.

    Reply

  22. I never get this anywhere close to right, but I have fun playing anyway. 🙂
    1. Lisey
    2. Kristen
    3. Lisey
    4. Sonia
    5. Zoe
    6. Kristen

    Reply

  29. The eyes are terrific, aren't they? I'm clearing out my accumulated cookie decorating stuff - some of it is a decade old - but I'll never give away the eyes! It's funny, too, that this is cookie day chez FG since when I couldn't sleep last night I went on a baking frenzy:
    Cocoa Butter Cupcakes (still need to make the icing and decorate them)
    Breakfast Bars (way too dry, needs a frozing drizzle)
    Molasses Cookies
    Cocoa Butter Choc Chip Cookies
    Gone Too Soon Cookies (chewy cookies made w rice krispies and choc chips)
    Cocoa Butter Fudgy Brownie Cookies
    Mystery Cookies (I forgot which recipe I used) w oatmeal and choc chips (but aren't oatmeal choc chip cookies)

    My coworkers are going to be very happy tomorrow.

    Reply

  39. I never manage to get even close to guessing these correctly, but here goes!
    1- Sonia
    2 - Zoe
    3 - Lisey
    4 - Zoe
    5 - Lisey
    6 - Kristen

    Reply

  53. So good to keep traditions! Here’s goes nothing: 1 & 2 -Kristen, 3- Lisey, 4-Zoe, 5-Lisey, 6-Sonia. Happy eating your fun creations!

    Reply

  77. 1. Sonia
    2. Kristen
    3. Lisey
    4. Zoe
    5. Lisey
    6. Kristen

    So glad Sonia convinced you! I love this game even if I'm never right!

    Reply

  78. I've never actually guessed on these, though I've followed for years. 🙂
    I picked my cookies, then went through to see if anyone else had the same order I did, and I didn't see any matches. So, fingers crossed. 🙂

    1. Lisey
    2. Kristen
    3. Sonia
    4. Kristen
    5. Zoe
    6. Zoe

    Reply

  80. I also recently learned that my choco chip cookie recipe doesn't fit into the Kitchenaid when doubled....oops.

    My guesses:
    1 - Kristen
    2 - Zoe
    3 - Lisey
    4 - Zoe
    5 - Sonia
    6 - Kristen

    Reply

  82. No idea, really. But thanks for sharing this fun tradition with us over the years!

    1. Lisey
    2. Sonia
    3. Zoe
    4. Zoe.
    5. Kristen
    6. Kristen

    And you can mark us down as another family that started buying edible eyes to put on our cookies thanks to your inspiration as well. 😉

    Reply

  87. I'm not good at guessing, but wanted to state that the chickie tree in the 4th photo of your blog post is the cutest cookie decoration I've seen in some time.

    Reply

  102. Hmmm,
    1. Kristen (it looks like a deviant amoeba with flagella!)
    2. Zoe
    3. Zoe
    4. Sonia
    5. Lisey
    6. Sonia

    I'm especially impressed with the googly eyes!

    Reply

  125. At our house tonight...
    Me: Husband, with your amazing math skills, can you hack this answer? If there are 288 possible answers and one hundred incorrect answers have been given, is there a way we can figure out what the right answer is?

    MrA.: No, not if all you know is that the other answers aren't correct. *pounds away on his computer muttering something about conditional probability trees*

    MrA twenty minutes later: Actually, there are 1080 possibilities because and that's how the numbers work out. I can't give you the answer, but I can write a computer program to tell you just how many options there are.

    Me twenty minutes later: Well, there may be 1080 possibilities, but all my guesses have already been claimed by someone else. I give up.

    MrA: After all that hard work I did writing the probability calculation program?!? You'd better guess! 😉

    Okay, okay....

    1. Sonia
    2. Zoe
    3. Lisey
    4. Sonia
    5. Lisey
    6. Kristen

    Reply

    2. Ooooh, can you have him explain the math to me? I was thinking the way it works is that for the first guess, there are four options, for the second guess there are four options, and then three, three, two, and one.

      Hmmmm. Wait. Is it 4x4x4x4 for the first four guesses?

      I know how to do the math if you don't use anyone's name twice, but I must have messed up my math when you can use someone's name twice.

      Reply

    3. @Kristen,

      None of us can math this properly! Now...I know you have like a bunch of super crucial exams this week, but we need the cookie answers!!! It's VERY important that I know how wrong I was!!!

      Reply

    4. I'm not an expert on combinatorics, but counting combinations gets tricky when the number of possibilities for a position is dependent upon what was chosen for the previous position(s). For example, in your case if the first two have the same decorator, then the number of possible decorators for the third is three; otherwise it is four. Then it gets even messier for the fourth cookie. There are mathematical tricks you can do to count combinations (such as counting those that can't work and subtracting them from the theoretical maximum number), but sometimes the best approach is to just have a short computer program count them for you (which is what I did...). If the problem had been "Here are six cookies. There are four cookie artists. How many combinations are there for who decorated what?", the answer would be 4096. With the constraints "Each artist decorated at least one cookie" and "No artist decorated more than two cookies", the number of valid combinations is reduced to 1080. Merry Christmas! - Dorinda's MrA.

      Reply

    8. You ladies seriously crack me up! Especially you, Becca!

      I did marry a pretty talented guy, though, if I do say so myself. 😉

      Reply

    9. There is a simpler way of thinking about it in terms of permutations than combinations. The point of view is to take how many unique permutations or arrangements of 6 objects can have when there are two identical pairs (like 6 balls and 4 colors, with two pairs sharing the same color).

      According to law of permutations, you have to just divide the total number of permutations with identical ones (Since exchanging balls of same color lead to same configuration).

      By this logic, number of cookie combinations are 6!/(2!*2!)= 1080.

      Reply

  135. I scrolled through only to ensure no one had won yet and didn't compare to see if my guess is taken. Like many others, I'm never even close! Heh.

    1. Sonia
    2. Lisey
    3. Zoe
    4. Sonia
    5. Zoe
    6. Kristen

    Reply

  138. 1. Sonia
    2. Lisey
    3. Sonia
    4. Zoe
    5. Kristen
    6. Kristen

    Love that you still did cookie decorating this year, I hope it made you happy.

    Reply

  150. I am not going to guess on all the cookies but wanted to say that I love the centipede cookie. Also love your blog. Traditions are really important to help our kids(and us) feel centered. You are an amazing mom.

    Reply

  155. My best guess....

    1. Lisey
    2. Kristen
    3. Sonia
    4. Lisey
    5. Zoe
    6. Kristen

    The cookies are so fun to look at! Nice job, Kristen, Lisey, Zoe and Sonia!

    Reply

  170. Oh, I'm SO GLAD that you all did this. I won't guess correctly, I've never guessed correctly, but I love this tradition of yours.
    Here's my guesses (which I suspect won't come close to what they're supposed to be). Ahem.

    1. Lisey
    2. Kristen
    3. Zoe
    4. Sonia
    5. Kristen
    6. Sonia

    Reply

  174. Love your creative cookie designs, you all have a great sense of humor! Here are my guesses.

    1. Lisey
    2. Sonia
    3. Sonia
    4. Kristen
    5. Kristen
    6. Zoe

    Reply

  178. 1. Kristen
    2. Zoe
    3. Lisey
    4. Sonia
    5. Zoe
    6. Sonia

    I love the yellow chick that is not part of the guessing game. How cute!

    Reply

  189. 1. Kristen.
    2. Kristen
    3. Lisey
    4. Sonia
    5. Zooey
    6. Lisey.

    Also don’t you have a son? Where is he? Or am I mistaken.

    Reply